Thursday, March 17, 2011

more recommended reading

This article from Bloomberg News (see grafs in italics, my emphasis) is a worth a look. I posted a few of Beddington's comments in an earlier post but here we get a bit more. An especially satisfying read if, like me, you are perturbed whenever the news media name drops "Chernobyl" into its coverage. See grafs in itals (my emphasis).

Tokyo Radiation Risk Limited Even in Worst Case, U.K. Says

By Kari Lundgren and Joe Carroll - Mar 16, 2011


The risks to human health from Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s damaged Fukushima Daiichi atomic plant are limited to an evacuated area adjacent to the facility, according to the U.K.’s Chief Scientific Officer John Beddington.

“The 20-kilometer (12-mile) exclusion zone that the Japanese have actually imposed is sensible and proportionate,” Beddington said, according to a transcript of a conference call yesterday. “This is very problematic for the area and the immediate vicinity, and one has to have concerns for the people working there. Beyond that 20 or 30 kilometers, it’s really not an issue for health.”

The worst-case scenario would result in an explosion that could send radioactive material about 500 meters in the air for a short period of time, he said. The Fukushima reactor lacks the sort of graphite buffer that burned so intensely during the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 that radioactive plumes jetted into the upper atmosphere as high as 30,000 feet for months, he said.

Cooling Struggle

Workers at the Fukushima facility, damaged after the March 11 earthquake, are struggling to keep the plant’s reactors cool and to control pressure inside the containment vessels. If they fail to do so, pressure would build up inside the reactors and cause the core to melt, Beddington said. As it melts, the material will fall and react with the concrete and other materials on the floor, he said on a call with the British Embassy in Tokyo.

“In this reasonable worst case, you get an explosion,” he said. “Now, that’s really serious, but it’s serious again for the local area. It’s not serious for elsewhere.”

Tokyo is about 240 kilometers southwest of the damaged power plant.

Even if weather patterns carried radioactive material toward Tokyo on the wind and in rain, there would be “absolutely no issue” for city residents, he said. The radioactive pollution would fall out of the sky before it got more than 20 kilometers or 30 kilometers from the damaged reactor, he said.

Chernobyl Exposure

After the Chernobyl blast, which killed more than 31 workers and firefighters, health problems stemming from direct radiation exposure didn’t extend beyond a 30-kilometer exclusion zone, Hilary Walker, deputy director of emergency preparedness at the U.K. Department of Health, said during the call.

The 4,000 children and adolescents who later developed thyroid cancer did so from eating food and milk contaminated with radioactive iodine, rather than as a result of fallout from the reactor explosion, Walker said.

Japan has a robust food-inspection system that would screen meat, produce, milk and seafood to ensure nothing contaminated by radioactivity reaches store shelves, she said.

“We believe the situation will be very different in Japan where they have extremely well developed plans, and they would be able to ensure that you could not drink contaminated water or eat contaminated food,” Walker said.

Beddington said an expansion of the Fukushima exclusion zone to a 30-kilometer radius would be “well within the sort of parameters that we would think are extremely safe.”

Nick Kent, a physician with the U.K.’s Health Protection Agency, said during the call that there’s no need for anyone who hasn’t been close enough to the plant to inhale radioactive materials to take iodine tablets.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kari Lundgren in London at klundgren2@bloomberg.net; Joe Carroll in Chicago at jcarroll8@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Will Kennedy at wkennedy3@bloomberg.net.

From The New York Times

March 17, 2011

Crisis Prompts Exodus of Executives From Tokyo


By David Jolly and Ken Belson

The crisis at the nuclear power plant 140 miles north of here is leading to a steady but orderly departure of business executives from Tokyo. Foreigners in particular are among those leaving, as concerns grow about the possibility of a catastrophic release of radiation and governments urge their citizens to consider seeking safety elsewhere in Japan or overseas.

Much as in 2003, when the SARS virus slowed business around Asia, a peculiar psychology has taken hold in Tokyo, where businessmen with the wherewithal are weighing whether to decamp to cities south and west of Tokyo — or wait and see whether the nuclear emergency escalates further.

In addition to the distraction of relocating employees, the confusion in some cases is preventing companies from addressing urgent problems in shattered plants and facilities along the northeastern coast of the main island, Honshu, which was ravaged by the earthquake and tsunami last week.

And the oppressive atmosphere of fear has made concentrating on even routine tasks difficult. Meetings are being canceled, salesmen have given up visiting clients and stores are cutting back hours or closing entirely. Getting a table in even the most popular restaurants has suddenly become easier.

There are no open signs of panic on the streets of Tokyo. But executives from a growing number of banks, law firms, consultants and other businesses have started to rent space in Osaka or Fukuoka or other cities farther from the badly damaged nuclear reactors.

With thousands of Japanese also fleeing the quake-stricken areas in the north, travel on domestic airlines and bullet trains headed away from northern Japan has climbed, and rooms in hotels considered out of harm’s way are filling up.

In many cases, the Tokyo evacuees are expatriates, often prompted by their governments’ embassies, which have recommended that their citizens seek shelter elsewhere as a precaution. The German government, for instance, advised its citizens in Tokyo and areas north either to leave the country or head to the Osaka area. The United States Embassy said it would help fly American citizens in Japan to safer places. Britain, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Australia are among the other countries whose governments have told their nationals to consider leaving Tokyo and to refrain from traveling to Japan’s northeast. France has asked Air France to mobilize extra planes for evacuations.

Two Czech military planes landed in Prague on Thursday morning after evacuating 106 people from Japan, mostly Czechs but also several nationals of Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Korea, the Associated Press reported. Also onboard were 41 members of the Czech Philharmonic Orchestra that had been touring Japan since March 6, as well as 11 children.

China has already evacuated more than 3,000 nationals from Japan’s north coast to Niigata in the west, Xinhua News agency reported.

Japanese authorities have responded to these various moves by urging governments not to sound alarmist. But Japanese companies, too, have started to move some of their employees — or give them the option of working from home. The reaction is partly in response to the reduction in train service in the Tokyo region caused by rolling blackouts that are meant to conserve energy.

The French nuclear power operator Areva is one of many companies moving workers and their families away from areas affected by the disaster or the possible path of radioactive fallout. Eighteen of the firm’s 100 employees, including Americans and Germans, left a mission they were on at the Fukishima nuclear plant when the earthquake hit, a spokeswoman said.

Since the weekend, Areva has been relocating the families of expatriate workers who want to leave Tokyo to the Kyushu region in the south, although employees considered most vital to operations have been asked to stay in the city.

Many other companies are responding in one of three ways: giving employees the option of leaving the area; moving some staff to Osaka while maintaining a skeleton staff in Tokyo, or shutting down operations in Tokyo and setting up elsewhere.

The law firm Jones Day, for instance, has shut its Tokyo office except to deal with urgent court filings. Chartis, the Japanese division of A.I.G., has moved some of its managers from Tokyo to its regional command center in Osaka. The bulk of companies, though, are letting workers decide for themselves whether to go or stay.

SAP, the German software giant, which has about 1,000 employees in Tokyo, has instructed all employees to work from home for now. The company has also given them the option of moving to hotel rooms in Kobe or Osaka, at company expense, if they choose, and to take their families with them.

An SAP spokeswoman, Angelika Pfahler, said the company took the measure shortly after the earthquake hit for safety reasons, although company headquarters here did not suffer any serious damage. Because it is a software company, it is possible for SAP to continue to operate almost normally even when workers are at remote locations, she said.

Martin Reilly, 43, an Irish software designer who works for the French insurance giant AXA, said his company had given employees the option to move, while keeping enough people in Tokyo to maintain operations. Though he said he was not fearful, Mr. Reilly was nevertheless taking the precaution of traveling to Osaka.

“I’m taking my work with me, and I can be back in three hours when this is cleared up,” Mr. Reilly said at Tokyo Station before boarding a train. “I think the chances of something happening are very small. But my parents are going ballistic. If I don’t go, my mother’s going to get on a plane and come take me away.”

The clothing retailer H&M has temporarily closed its nine stores in the Tokyo region because its employees had difficulty getting to work and were on edge while the nuclear crisis continued, said Mie Anton, a spokeswoman for the company. The planned opening of a store on Saturday has been postponed.

The disruption could provide an extra blow to Japan’s economy because so much of the nation’s business takes place in the capital, although it is too early to quantify the effect on consumer spending and business investment.

Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo, said some companies were clearly taking the initiative in leaving the city, particularly in the foreign community. But short of an evacuation order, most people will remain in the city because so far, “it’s hard to judge just how dangerous it is,” he said.

Most Japanese residents, he said, “have nowhere to hide.”

The growing number of departures, sometimes with little warning, has in some cases worsened the tensions that often divide local and expatriate staff. The International Bankers Association, which represents foreign financial institutions in Tokyo, said in a statement that its 59 member institutions were operating “business as usual.” But privately, spokesmen for major Western banks said that many of their employees had chosen to take vacations now until there was more clarity on the situation.

While economic activity in Tokyo has slowed, business in cities like Osaka has picked up, a welcome development — despite the circumstances — given the sluggish economy.

Shuhei Otsuka, 24, an employee of the railroad operator JR-East at Tokyo Station, compared the number of Japanese riders in the last few days with the New Year’s holiday rush or the summer vacation travel peak.

Many of the Japanese travelers were families, or mothers with children, while the number of businessmen traveling was about normal, Mr. Otsuka said. Domestic travel agents said that reservations for flights to the islands of Kyushu and Okinawa surged starting Tuesday.

Bookings at hotels that cater to the well-heeled and to expatriates have picked up as well. Many customers who have arrived this week appeared to have left their homes in a rush, said Matsuko Akesaka, a spokeswoman for the Ritz-Carlton in Osaka. Many guests have booked rooms — which start at 58,000 yen, or $720 — for only a few nights until they decide whether it is safe to return.

“Business is nothing like during the bubble economy, but compared to the last few years, it’s picked up” in the last few days, she said, noting that her hotel had set up a playroom for children who had accompanied their parents.

Some companies are planning to stay in cities like Osaka and Kobe for far longer. Demand for office space at full-service backup operations providers like Regus and Servcorp has surged as companies set up or expand their remote operations outside the Tokyo area, said Brett Jensen, account manager for west Japan at the Osaka office of Colliers International, a real estate broker.

Other companies are expanding existing offices in Osaka and elsewhere, or signing new leases for office space.

“The nuclear issue is one of the main drivers, but there is also concern about the ability to have a stable supply of electricity even after the nuclear issue is resolved,” Mr. Jensen said. Thousands of workers could temporarily relocate to Osaka, he said, and many could remain long-term as companies decide to diversify their risks.

The influx of newcomers has been noticeable in central Osaka in recent days. Ken Shimabuku, who works for a large executive search firm in Osaka, said he had been surprised Tuesday by the number of people carrying suitcases through the streets. “It was so obvious that people were going away,” he said. “Not just foreigners, the ones coming to Osaka, but the Japanese.”

Liz Alderman contributed reporting from Paris and Jack Ewing from Frankfurt.

good works

Thought I'd share this message being circulated by the Franciscan Chapel Center in Roppongi's women's network, for anyone in Tokyo who may be interested:

We can't feed the refugees up north, but we can feed our neighbors. With the evacuation of a number of rice cake makers and their families, we are very short on rice cake makers. We simply cannot leave it for the 2 or 3 FCC staff to do. If you can come tomorrow and/or over the next week we would be grateful. Mondays are taken care of by the Mormon missionaries. We start at the following times:

Tues and Wed: 8:30am
Thurs and Fri: 9 am
Sat 9-10:30

The Third Order Franciscans do Sun at 10:30, but you can join them if you like.

Please contact Brandy Heyde at brandyheyde@hotmail.com , but if you don't have time to contact her, please come in anyway.
God bless,
Frances Moyer

regarding those spent fuel rods

The explanation below is being circulated within the expat community, specifically among parents of students at the British School in Tokyo. Our PTA president is, awesomely, an American who spent the first 7 years of his career working in the nuclear industry, as a field engineer who spent many hours on top of, along side of, and underneath the actual reactor pressure vessel. In the late 1990s he project managed the fabrication of replacement parts that are currently inside of Fukushima 3 and 5 (two of the six reactors at the nuclear power plant where cooling systems failed after the tsunami caused by the March 11 earthquake knocked out its emergency generators).

His messages, this just being the most recent one, have been massively helpful, clearly written, etc. Thanks Eric. (I promise to help out at the spring fair.)

Have a look:

A spent fuel pool is a steel lined concrete structure that is right next to the reactor vessel (see attached). It looks a lot like a deep swimming pool. A nuclear reactor shuts down every 18 months for what is called a refueling outage. During this refueling outage, approximately 1/3 of the fuel is taken out of the core and moved to the spent fuel pool and new unused fuel is put into the reactor. So imagine your reactor core is one big birthday cake and that 1/3 of your candles have burned down so much that you have very little light from them. So you take those 1/3 candles off the cake and put them a bucket of water (spent fuel pool) because even though they aren't burning bright enough to provide you the light that you desire (don't generate enough heat to boil the water at all or efficiently), they can still smolder and burn your fingers if you touch them (decay heat). The new fuel are the new candles that have never been lit (thus they won't burn your fingers at all) and once they go inside the reactor core the flame on the candles next to them (fuel still in the reactor that can produce significant heat through nuclear reaction) "lights" them (starts the nuclear process).

The spent fuel pool is kept full of water (16 feet over the height of the fuel bundles) for two reasons. One is to keep the spent fuel cool since there is still decay heat, and two to provide shielding from radiation. Deionized water is an effective shield to radiation. I have walked past the spent fuel many times and looked straight down at spent fuel bundles.

Having the spent fuel become exposed is a very bad thing. They are still highly radioactive and as they become more uncovered due to evaporating or leaking water from the spent fuel pool the radiation levels in the area will spike significantly and remain significantly higher until either the water is back up over the fuel bundles or they are moved into dry storage (called casks).

What appears to have happened or is happening is that the spent fuel pools at at least one of the sites has dropped down to the height of the fuel bundles (exposed them to air.) I assume that Tepco is trying to refill the spent fuel pools with the helicopters dropping buckets of water and fire hoses. This is obviously a very short term solution but if they can get them sufficiently covered by these methods, then the radiation levels should go back down which would allow workers to get closer to spent fuel pools to execute a longer term solution.

Spent fuel is still highly radioactive and can cause harm to human health. However, since it is spent fuel, it is very very unlikely that there would be a meltdown or start a nuclear reaction.

I do not have access to radiation levels as of late, but as mentioned in a prior email, distance from the source significantly reduces the level of exposure. So if the plant provides a radiation level (most likely in microSieverts/ hour) I have assumed that number is at the plant boundary, say 1 km from the source (reactor). Tokyo is about 200 km away so you would divide the number that you are told at the source and divide that by 40000. So, for example, if the radiation level at the source is 100 microSieverts/ hour, that should equate to 100/ 40000 or .0025 microSieverts / hour in Tokyo; a significant decrease. If you are told a value that is in milliSieverts, that it different than microSieverts. 1 millSievert is the same as 1000 microSieverts.

Here is a link that can tell you more about radiation:


I do not want to sound insensitive to the situation affecting our neighbors to the north of us. My messages have been very Tokyo centric given that you are all most likely living in Tokyo or the surrounding areas. If you do have friends or family within the evacuation zones I would urge them to move out of them as soon as possible.

AP and AI

Mar 17, 7:28 AM EDT
US authorizes American evacuations out of Japan

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The United States has authorized the first evacuations of Americans out of Japan, taking a tougher stand on the deepening nuclear crisis and warning U.S. citizens to defer all non-essential travel to any part of the country as unpredictable weather and wind conditions risked spreading radioactive contamination.

Read full story here.

On Thursday around midday, Tokyo time, a few hours before this AP story appeared, my friend Ai posted this update on her FB page:

Thank you Friends, for keeping us in your thoughts. Here in Tokyo we feel safe right now. We are updating our plan B every single morning and we feel we are making sound decisions. Plan A is stay in Tokyo for now; we are working and it's life as normal (except for toilet paper selling out every morning at stores... might have to ask you for a care package of TP soon :)). We are praying for those where disaster struck and those who are still looking for loved ones. It's snowing there. We will also let you know which organization we choose to donate to. Please Watch NHK World for updates. The tremors are getting less frequent and smaller. In regards to the plants, the US and UK embassies have repeatedly have said those in Tokyo are still OK here. We are keeping tabs on everything. Even watching CNN. OK just sometimes :). We feel it's important to take everything with a grain of salt and make a decision that YOU feel most comfortable with. More soon. Thank you for keeping Japan in your thoughts and prayers.


the other side of hysteria

Japanese seem unwilling if not incapable of conveying bad news. When the answer to a question is "No," often there are smiles and awkward sucking in of air through teeth. This is a culture that's all about being courteous and accommodating. Hiroko Tabuchi, Tokyo correspondent for the New York Times, explains in this video report why communicating the disastrous situation in Japan has been a struggle.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

need to stay focused

It's hard to read a headline like "U.S. Calls Radiation 'Extremely High' and Urges Deeper Caution in Japan" without thinking, this is it, we're not going to be able to go back.

That's me overreacting, getting ahead of the story and imagining all that could go wrong from here. (Maybe I should be on CNN!)

I don't want our time in Japan to be over. What a heartbreak that would be. It would mean that the nuclear situation could not be contained; that the health risks had spread to Tokyo; that the city was in real danger and had to be evacuated (can you imagine?? 13 million people!) in which case the country would really be f***ed, and that's just too sad to contemplate...

Time to get a grip. Because that's just not happening. Not happening.

from Time Out Tokyo

Japan earthquake: How you can help
"Give money, give blood, but don't head to the afflicted areas"

BST closed until March 28

The Head of School announced today that the decision to keep the school closed for a second week following the quake is based on continuing uncertainties surrounding three main issues:

• The current increase in seismic activity
• The effect of power cuts particularly if another emergency occurs at the same time
• Concerns expressed over the nuclear reactor problems

We already have return tickets for Sunday March 27, so this would work wonderfully -- assuming all is back to normal by then. What seemed somewhat arbitrary when we booked it now seems prescient. I hope it's not overly optimistic.

numb in New York

I am sad that I've left Japan. (The boys and I flew to New York early Wednesday morning, Tokyo time.) I really did not believe we were in mortal danger, but what else was I going to do? Stay holed up in our apartment, counting the aftershocks and answering panicky emails from friends and family back home? The kids would not be going to school, at least for the time being (BST has closed school for the week and maybe longer). If Terry was going to work from home, which made sense, we had to get out of his hair. There was also the concern about possible food shortages -- supermarkets were already low on stock (much of what is coming into the ports is being diverted up north, where the tsunami struck) and train service was spotty at best. Besides, virtually everyone we knew (mainly expat wives/trailing spouses and their children) had already gone or were going, which had us second-guessing ourselves. (Maybe it's worse than we think? Are we being stupid?). In any case, we are at my mom and dad's, and now I can go visit my 93-year-old grandfather who's sick in the hospital. Which is a good thing.

from the top

On Friday, March 11, at 2:46pm, a category-9 earthquake struck 17 miles off the coast of Honshu 240 miles northeast of Tokyo. About 10-15 minutes later, a tsunami slammed the northeast coast, wiping out several towns and villages in the Miyagi, Iwate and Fukushima prefectures. People, planes, cars and homes, everything just wiped out and washed away, lost in the surge. It was the strongest quake to hit Japan in the country's recorded history.

It hit Tokyo with a magnitude of 5 - not nearly as bad, but pretty terrifying. Or so I'm told. I was not there. I was out of the country. I missed it completely. Terrible timing. Or maybe excellent timing, depending on how you look at it.

As it turns out, my family did just fine without me. I was lucky. We were lucky. Tokyo was lucky. Because despite of the force of the thing, the big city we have been calling home for more than three years emerged virtually unscathed, with hardly any structural damage. There were scary eyewitness accounts of skyscrapers swaying like palm trees in a strong wind, and yet no buildings collapsed (the only report I saw was of a ceiling coming down inside a party hall in Odaiba). This story explains how Japan's strict building codes saved lives. As Terry says, when the quake struck, and he was on the 20-something floor of his office building in Hakozaki, in Chuo-ku, he thought to himself, "It's not normal for a building to sway like this." It was unnerving, he says, all the bumping and shaking that was going on, and with the office ladies crying. He says he half-expected one side of his building to be sheered off. And then it wasn't.

I wasn't able to really talk to the kids about the experience until three days later (they're not big on talking on the phone) and Terry didn't see them until several hours after it happened, so who knows how they were affected, really. From what I can tell, they were just fine, and still are fine. But here's what I know:

When the Big One hit on the Friday afternoon, the kids were still at school. Dylan was in the music room with his Year 4 class, and says a line of guitars and some drums fell over and the piano was shaking. "Like a nightmare" is how he describes it. Meanwhile, Conor was down the hall huddling under a table with his fellow Year 5s. He says he didn't feel anything at first, but then he did. "It was scary, but also kind of thrilling," he told me when I tried to "interview" him on the Monday following. "Can I watch TV now?"

The boys really couldn't say how long the quake itself lasted. Terry says "awhile." I read a few reports that say the duration was 3-5 minutes -- which sounds like ages to me. But in any case, when it finally stopped, the kids at school donned fireproof hoods (not helmets) and filed out onto the Showa campus's large running track-and-field, where they waited, seated on the artificial turf for parents to pick them up. "We weren't allowed to stand up," Conor says. I asked him if he remembers any of the other children being frightened. "Some were crying and holding onto the teachers' hands." (He sounded bewildered by this, if not entirely unsympathetic -- could he really be that unfazed?)

Because I was going to be away I had already arranged for my friend and next-door neighbor, Victoria, to collect the boys from school on the Friday afternoon, and apparently that went off without a hitch, with her Japanese driver/house manager, Saito-san, parking the car and collecting both my two boys and Victoria's son and taking them back to her house. Several other children had to wait until 7pm, 8pm, even 9pm or later for their parents to collect them, because it took them that long to travel from wherever they were to the campus, and no child was allowed to leave unaccompanied (many upper primary and secondary school students travel to/from school on their own under normal circumstances). The roads were jammed, trains and buses had stopped running and so it took hours to get anywhere.

"The kids were all so good on Friday and I was pleased I had them around me - it stopped me from going crazy," Victoria emailed me from the UK a few days later. When there was an aftershock, they each grabbed a pillow and ducked under the dining room table. Apparently the dog thought it was a brilliant game.

The kids were happily watching "The Simpsons" when my husband Terry arrived around 9 pm. He had been walking for a little more than 2 hrs, party to the orderly migration of salarymen (some of whom were wearing hardhats) that spilled beyond the sidewalks and into the streets, turning virtually every intersection in Nihonbashi, Ginza, Hibiya, Akasaka and Roppongi (all 'hoods along his route home) into a Shibuya Scramble x 10.

The mood out on the street was not all that somber, Terry says. "It reminded me more of the blackout [in New York in August 2004]: No communication, throngs of people walking, a bit of a party atmosphere. Everyone was safe and the buildings still stood. Not like 9/11."

I asked Terry if he was scared during the quake itself. "Yes, when it was going on, I thought, 'This is bad," he says. Like really bad turbulence on a jumbo jet. Much different than the gentle tremors we've experienced so many times before. It had to be bad for Japanese to look worried. And in the case of the men in Terry's office, some were white as a sheet, stricken, some of the secretaries crying or sniffling, trying to hold steady but clearly panicked. To lighten things up a little -- and maybe to keep himself from losing it -- he sat on his chair, grabbed the seat under him with both hands, lifted his feet and let the quake roll him back and forth across the floor. That got a few nervous laughs, he says.

So where was I during all this? With 7 friends in Cambodia, building houses for the Tabitha Foundation. We were working in a rural village about an hour outside Phnom Penh and had just started our lunch break. Laura's husband called us about 12:50pm local time, just after it hit (we were 2 hrs behind Tokyo), to tell us that there had been an earthquake, and that we might hear about it on the news, but not to worry. So of course we all started fretting. But ultimately we were all able to make contact with our husbands by emailing from our iphones -- data roaming, off! (can't wait to see that bill). Facebook also came in handy during those early stages, as no calls or texts were going through. Of course, FB would also become a problem, as a way of spreading misinformation and unloading complicated emotions. It was hard to ignore.

I think most of the other moms on the trip including myself agreed it was good the kids were at BST when it happened, because the folks there know better than any of us (or our husbands) how to deal with these kinds of situations. We didn't have to wait long before we were receiving emails from the school and were told that all was under control, with each child accounted for, etc. We were still pretty anxious, and felt a little guilty for not being there (at least we weren't in Shanghai on a shopping trip).

There was nothing to do but keep working. Before we left for the day, we managed to nail all the bamboo strips into all the floor studs in two more houses. Not sure our hearts were really in it anymore -- we were too preoccupied thinking about Japan and how our families were coping. Sadly, the purpose of our trip and the people we were helping were no longer front of mind.

After work it was back to the hotel and another round of nervous emailing, Facebooking and consuming way too much sensational TV news coverage. Those CNN anchors are the worst! Such inane comments. One noted that while there had been a run on the convenient stores, there had been "no reports of rioting." Rioting?! Ha! This is Japan, people. Even when disaster strikes, civility rules. BBC World was better.

Timely updates kept coming from Lowly Norgate, BST's Communications officer, and they were reassuring, but we were all starting to feel a little desperate to get home. Some of the husbands, not used to being on full-time kid duty even in the best of times, became engrossed with their jobs (some had more damage control to do than others) and children started sounding worried on the phone.

Anxiety is catching. So I pressed Terry about the boys' frame of mind.

One email exchange the day after the quake:

Me: how are boys- was Dylan worried? can you just hug and kiss them for me and tell them i wish i was home?

T: I'll do so right now. They were fine - a bracing boys' adventure! - but got a little worried at bedtime, although maybe just because they were tired.

The girls and I stayed in Phnom Penh for another 48 hours, leaving a day earlier than planned, but still finishing the job we had gone there to do. We even managed to fit in some sightseeing.

But soon we caught wind of the trouble at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power plant (explosions, radiation leaks, etc.), and were reading Facebook status updates from people saying they were leaving the country for the U.K., or France, or Hong Kong for a spell, until things settled down. School was canceled, first on the Monday that we would be landing in Narita, and then through the whole week. One by one the ladies traveling with me announced they would be heading elsewhere too. "Better safe than sorry" seemed to be the general sentiment among expats. "Staying is not worth the stress."

When Terry's company notified us that they would pay for the plane tickets, there was a day or two of waffling, and then we decided: I would take the boys to New York and Terry would follow if things really get bad. It would be easier for him to get outta Dodge if he's running solo.

Part of me wanted to stay to see how it all played out, maybe do some reporting. Part of me wanted to help with the relief effort. But the parent part is what ultimately put me on that plane out of Haneda on Wednesday morning.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Aftershock!

10:35 pm

Our disco ball that hangs from the ceiling just started to sway. But by the time I had pulled my iPhone out of my back pocket and switched it to videocamera mode, it was all over. Damn!

encouraging

10 pm Tuesday, March 15

Bags are packed, lamb chops consumed, taxi is reserved for 3:30 am pick up for 6:40 am flight out of Haneda (closer to us than Narita, so this is good). Boys went to bed in their traveling clothes. Bottle of red nearly drained.

The global NY Times website's lede photo right now has a caption that reads "The worst nuclear accident since the Chernobyl explosion in 1986 is unfolding in northern Japan at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant. Three reactors have been critically damaged and one caught fire."

And yet, I am feeling better about things.

According to an individual who heard it firsthand then summarized it in an email for a friend of a friend of a friend of my husband's (think email forwarding, not a game of telephone), according to Sir John Beddington, the UK government's Chief Scientific Advisor:

-The worst-case scenario is meltdown in which nuclear material falls to the floor of the reactors and then explodes. This could lead to radioactive material being thrown about 500m high up into the air for a short period.

-There are no conceivable weather patterns which could lead to hazardous levels of radiation being experienced as far away as Tokyo as a result of such a meltdown, even if all three reactors were to explode at once. The hazard to human health in this case would be within a radius of around 20-30km around the reactors themselves (central Tokyo is 250 km away).

Also, according to AFP (like AP, only French) The French embassy withdrew a news item on its website saying a low level radioactive wind could reach Tokyo in 10 hrs, saying the report was unconfirmed and winds had changed.

still calm

4 pm

Terry has booked a flight out for Friday and has asked me to close all windows and air vents in the apartment as there are new fears of exposure to radiation (see below). No evacuation order in our area but officials did widen the Fukushima zone from a 20 km to a 30 km radius (still far away from central Tokyo). More and more people we know -- including friends who just yesterday said they saw no reason to leave Tokyo -- are now on the road to Osaka with hopes of flying out to Hong Kong or UK later in the week, for fear that if they wait it will be increasingly difficult to get to Narita to catch a plane.

When I posted this as my status update on Facebook...
The boys and I are leaving for New York tomorrow, not because we believe we are in danger if we stay in Tokyo, but school's out, due to uncertain power supply; we will drive Terry crazy if we stay (he's staying to work) and his company is paying for our flights.
... I wasn't worried. I am a bit worried now. But I am not going to post about it. Let me be clear. I am a huge fan of FB, and it's been a great communications tool when phone calls and texts weren't getting through, but the News Feed is an echo chamber of misinformation and general freak-out, and I see no reason to add to it. I would say, though, that I want my husband to get outta Dodge, only because as more and more people try to leave, it will be more and more difficult for him to do so, and I don't want him to get stuck.

Now for a News update:

Radiation leak

The threat made real

Mar 15th 2011, 4:50 by H.T. and A.T. | TOKYO and HONG KONG

AT AN 11am news conference this morning in Tokyo, Naoto Kan, Japan’s prime minister, announced that elevated levels of nuclear radiation emanating from the Fukushima power plant pose a substantial risk to human life in the area. He urged people within 30 kilometres of the site to stay indoors.

Early Tuesday morning an explosion damaged the No. 2 reactor at the Daiichi plant in Fukushima; this is at least the fourth time that an explosion has affected some part of the multi-reactor plant since the a 9.0-magnitude earthquake and tsunami struck on Friday afternoon. This time part of the reactor itself seems to have been damaged. Crew that were tending to the facility and trying to make repairs were evacuated. They had already punched a hole into the vessel around the second reactor, so as to reduce the risk of further hydrogen explosions—at the cost of releasing a greater flow of radioactive particles into the surrounding atmosphere.

The No. 2 reactor is not the only source of concern. A fire broke out at Daiichi’s No. 4 reactor at about 6 o'clock this morning, about half an hour before the blast discussed by Mr Kan. The radiation level around that reactor too is high and rising. Yukio Edano, the chief cabinet secretary, says that the No. 4 reactor was not in operation when the fire started. That suggests that meltdown itself is not a possibility in that reactor, but there is nuclear fuel housed inside. Engineers suspect the explosion was a hydrogen-powered blast, like the ones that preceded it. If that is the case, the nuclear fuel should not be ignited. With the building's shielding ruptured however, some degree of radiation leakage was inevitable.

The radiation level around the No. 3 reactor meanwhile has risen to 400 millisieverts (mSv): much higher than it had been when last reported and positively damaging to human health. Exposure to anything higher than 500 mSv, for however short a period, is recognised as being harmful.

This nuclear accident is already the world's worst since the explosions and meltdown at Chernobyl, in Soviet Ukraine, in 1986. As it escalates rapidly, attention is swinging from the victims and survivors of the catastrophic tsunami damage along the coast to the horrifying possibility of yet greater dangers posed by the compromised reactors. Untold thousands of people in northern Japan have died since Friday. Today panicky e-mails about radiation cascade across East Asia, offering fear and bogus medical advice.

The French embassy put out a safety alert to its nationals living in Tokyo, noting that south-westerly winds from the area around Fukushima could bring low-level radioactive contamination to the capital, 250km away, within 10 hours. While the Japanese response has been by and large stoical, foreigners are clearly giving thought to flight. Air China has cancelled scheduled flights to Tokyo from Beijing and Shanghai.

Mr Kan and his colleagues are trying to reassure the public that the fight to contain the radiation is still on. Their approach has seemed marked by composure and candour. Mr Kan complained that he had not received information directly from the Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco) for more than one hour after he watched this morning's explosion on live television. Tepco has requested help at Fukushima from the American army.

I'm still here

2pm Tuesday, March 15

Still home in Tokyo -- safe and sound with the rest of the family -- and trying to keep up with what's happening, and what we should do.

This is a good read, from The Economist's Banyan blog

After the earthquake
: Stoicism amid the debris

Mar 14th 2011, 19:23 by H.T. and K.N.C. | SAITAMA AND TOKYO

AMONG THE the panoply of disasters that has besieged Japan since Friday’s earthquake and tsunami it appears that the risks of a serious nuclear accident may be rising again. Over the weekend, the threat of a nuclear catastrophe distracted attention from the human tragedy: a string of towns and villages along hundreds of kilometres of coastline in north-eastern Japan that were buried under water or washed away.

That threat appeared to be receding. Now, however, a third reactor at the Fukushima nuclear plant appears to be in trouble, once again opening the possibility of a meltdown. Nuclear fuel rods in this reactor may have been dangerously exposed, and Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco), which owns the plant, is trying to cool these by pumping in sea water.

One positive development, though, is how the government, the defence forces and the famously stoic Japanese people have responded to the disaster. Naoto Kan’s government, which was on its knees a week or two ago, has so far appeared to be on top of the complexities of the nuclear crisis, and its explanations have provided reassurance in a weekend-long nightmare that could easily have descended into panic.

During the 1995 Kobe earthquake the government dithered shockingly from the start, but this time 100,000 troops have been deployed to the stricken areas to lead the search-and-rescue effort. Their work has been hampered by savagely damaged lines of communication, and they have faced some criticism for not focusing more on helping survivors, especially among the elderly and infirm, rather than gathering the dead. Having said that, they are making it through to the worst affected areas, and are airlifting food and supplies to 450,000 evacuees. On March 14th alone, at least 2,000 bodies were found floating in waters off the coast of Miyagi prefecture—though, reportedly, the death toll in one of those places, Minamisanriku, may not be as high as the 10,000 once feared, because many residents escaped. Reports from the area reveal a level of devastation that the government’s fiscal-reform minister, Kaoru Yosano, estimates may cost more than the ¥10 trillion ($120 billion) of the Kobe quake, in which about 6,500 people died. That may be imprecise, however, because industrial Kobe is so different from the rural communities, many of whose inhabitants are pensioners, that have been devastated this time.

So far, the economic concerns in a country with one of the worst debt levels in the world have been serious, but not panic-inducing. The Nikkei 225 average fell 4.7% on Monday. On the same day the Bank of Japan sought to offset an expected decline in business confidence by injecting a record amount of cash into the financial system, and doubling the size of an asset-purchase programme. Both measures may have helped weaken the yen, but given the expected impact of power outages on industry, it may not be enough to prevent damage to the country’s fragile recovery.

Another concern is fiscal. Moody’s, the credit-rating agency, said a fiscal crisis was not imminent, despite the possibility that the quake will add to Japan’s fiscal deficit. But it said it may move the tipping point—when savers lose confidence in Japanese debt—a bit closer. In a sign of how seriously policymakers of many political stripes view the debt, there is already talk among the opposition of an emergency tax increase to pay for the reconstruction. Understandably, the government says there are more pressing decisions to be taken first.

The threats from the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant continued on Monday, and there was no trading in shares of Tepco, Japan’s biggest utility; had there been they were expected to tumble at least 20%. The plant’s third reactor suffered an explosion similar to one that blew the outer casing off the first reactor on Saturday. But like the former, this was considered non-threatening and was due to a build-up of hydrogen, not of radioactive gasses. The containment vessel protecting the core was said to be undamaged.

But in a country where one third of all power is generated by nuclear energy (Japan lacks its own fossil fuels), the crisis is almost bound to force a rethink of the nuclear-energy policy. This is likely to be exacerbated by blackouts rolling around the country, which are affecting trains and forcing industries to suspend production.

Japan’s steadfast ability to endure adversity is being tested in a crisis that Mr Kan says is the worst since the second world war. Queues stretch for miles at some petrol stations, mainly because of refinery shut-downs by firms such as Cosmo. Supermarkets are short of food, and pharmacies lack iodine, which people have bought for fear of radiation. In a predictable twist, the government has put its telegenic female minister, known as Renho, in charge of selling energy savings to the public. So far, the people have shown a remarkable ability to face the prospect without grumbling—and many volunteers in Tokyo are trying to make the hazardous journey north to help their stricken countrymen. Others feel bound to stay in the capital with their families, because an official warning that another big earthquake may strike still stands.

Monday, March 14, 2011

New York Times editorial

March 14, 2011

Japan’s Multiple Calamities

Any comment on the disaster in Japan must begin with the stunning scale of human loss. Thousands dead or missing from the devastating earthquake and tsunami surge. Hundreds of thousands homeless. Whole villages wiped out. And now there is the threat of further harm from badly damaged nuclear reactors. The worst-case accident would be enormous releases of radioactivity.

The unfolding Japanese tragedy also should prompt Americans to closely study our own plans for coping with natural disasters and with potential nuclear plant accidents to make sure they are, indeed, strong enough. We’ve already seen how poor defenses left New Orleans vulnerable to Hurricane Katrina and how industrial folly and hubris led to a devastating blowout and oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

It is sobering that such calamities could so badly hurt Japan, a technologically advanced nation that puts great emphasis on disaster mitigation. Japan’s protective seawalls proved no match for the high waves that swept over them and knocked out the safety systems that were supposed to protect nearby nuclear reactors from overheating and melting down.

It is much too early to understand the magnitude of what has happened. But, as of now, this four-day crisis in Japan already amounts to the worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl in 1986.

From early reports, it appears that the troubled reactors survived the earthquake. Control rods shut down the nuclear fission reactions that generate power. But even after shutdown, there is residual heat that needs to be drawn off by cooling water pumped through the reactor core, and that’s where the trouble came.

The nuclear plant lost its main source of electric power to drive the pumps, and the tsunami knocked out the backup diesel generators that were supposed to drive the pumps in an emergency. That left only short-term battery power that is able to provide cooling water on a small scale but can’t drive the large pumps required for full-scale cooling.

Early Tuesday morning, the frightening news came that Japan was facing the full meltdown of crippled reactors at a nuclear power station — with unknown and potentially catastrophic consequences. In a televised address to the nation at 11 a.m. local time, Prime Minister Naoto Kan pleaded for calm as he announced that radiation had spread from the reactors. He added that there was “a very high risk” of further leakages.

With the United States poised to expand nuclear power after decades of stagnation, it will be important to reassess safety standards. Some 30 American reactors have designs similar to the crippled reactors in Japan. Various reactors in this country are situated near geologic faults, in coastal areas reachable by tsunamis or in areas potentially vulnerable to flooding. Regulators will need to evaluate how well operators would cope if they lost both primary power and backup diesel generators for an extended period.

This page has endorsed nuclear power as one tool to head off global warming. We suspect that, when all the evidence is in from Japan, it will remain a valuable tool. But the public needs to know that it is a safe one.

aftermath

Need Overwhelms Japan After Quake and Tsunami

By MARTIN FACKLER and MARK McDONALD

March 14, 2011, NATORI, Japan — What the sea so violently ripped away, it has now begun to return. Hundreds of bodies are washing up along some shores in northeastern Japan, making clearer the extraordinary toll of the earthquake and tsunami that struck last week and adding to the burdens of relief workers as they ferry aid and search for survivors.

On Monday, various reports from police officials and news agencies said that as many as 2,000 bodies had now washed ashore along the coastline, overwhelming the capacity of local officials. That, combined with the country’s unfolding nuclear disaster and a regionwide stock market plunge, has become what Prime Minister Naoto Kan described as Japan’s worst crisis since World War II.

About 350,000 people have reportedly been left homeless and are staying in shelters, awaiting news of friends and relatives among the many thousands who remain unaccounted for. The national police said early Tuesday that more than 15,000 were missing, though just 2,475 deaths had been confirmed since the quake, which the U.S. Geological Survey revised to a magnitude of 9.0, from 8.9, on Monday.

With police officials estimating that 10,000 people may have been swept away in one town alone, Minamisanriku, north of here, there was every expectation that the toll would rise.

The disruptions to Japan’s $5 trillion economy, the third-largest in the world, and collective anxiety over the stricken reactors caused a rout in the Japanese stock market that reverberated across the region on Tuesday.

A steep decline in the Japanese stock market, which lost 13 percent by midday Tuesday, sent other Asian markets tumbling. The Bank of Japan, which injected a record $183.8 billion into the economy on Monday to maintain liquidity, poured in tens of billions of dollars more on Tuesday, which failed to halt the slide.

Here in Natori, where some of the first pictures of the tsunami showed a towering initial wave lashing a line of trees, all that remains along the coast is a field of black mud. Brightly clad searchers bent to their work Monday — the police in navy blue, the handlers of sniffer dogs in orange, the military squads in camouflage.

They made their way around marooned boats and collapsed houses, finding toys, torn bedding, tangled fishing nets and pieces of cars, toilets or pottery, all the mundane pieces of daily life, now broken. Occasionally, too, they found a body, sometimes already covered by a tarp.

The region continues to face widespread power and water shortages. When relief supplies do come, residents clamor for help. At Natori City Hall, survivors quickly lined up at a truck handing out large containers of water. Lines of nearly a mile formed in front of stations providing gasoline.

At City Hall, officials in this town of 70,000 residents have posted a list of the 8,340 people who arrived safely at 41 makeshift shelters. Dozens of people crammed into the building’s small lobby to pore over the lists.

Those who could not find the name they sought wrote out messages on pieces of paper, and taped them to the entrance. Hundreds of pieces hung there.

Mikako Watanabe, 26, and Yumiko Watanabe, 24, were looking for their mother. They were at work when the tsunami struck, but their mother was napping at home in the Yuriage neighborhood, as she always did after her night shift as a nurse.

“I hope she woke up with the earthquake and got to safety in time,” the older sister said. “We have no way to contact her.”

On Monday, three days after the tsunami, they still had no word of her. Their message said, “Yurika Watanabe, we’re looking for you. Contact us if you see this.”

But communications are badly broken. With cellphone service largely knocked out, many residents are relying on the small number of surviving pay phones.

Some meetings are by chance. In the crowds, there were squeals of joy at reunions — and crying for relatives not found. One woman wailed over and over, “Her name is not on the list! Her name is not on the list!” She said she was looking for her sister-in-law, who lived in Yuriage. She said that if she is not at an evacuation center, she must be dead.

Rescue teams from 13 countries pressed on with the searches. One used a German shepherd and a small spaniel in Yuriage. The shepherd would climb around the wreckage of homes and twisted hulks of cars, sniffing. If he started barking, the team sent in the spaniel, small enough to prowl around the crevices of the wreckage.

In one case, the spaniel also barked. The team began digging in the debris, but found nothing. “Is there anyone here? Is there anyone alive?” They yelled as they dug. A member of the team said that there was now a scant chance of survivors, and the dogs were finding only corpses.

Off in the distance, a small cluster of buildings stood undamaged on the sad expanse of the mud flats. Outlined against the afternoon sky, they seemed like tombstones.

Such was the rubble that soldiers used olive-drab power shovels and construction equipment to cut roads through the mountains of debris.

In the air, helicopters shuttled back and forth constantly, part of a mobilization of some 100,000 troops, the largest since World War II. Several convoys could be seen on the road to Sendai, a larger city to the north.

Some firefighters in Natori had arrived from as far away as the southern city of Hiroshima, reflecting the fact that rescuers had descended from across Japan.

In addition, helicopters and ships from the United States Seventh Fleet, including the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan, had joined the tsunami relief effort.

Farther south, in the city of Fukushima, gas stations, grocery stores and restaurants were closed, and convenience stores had no food or drinks to sell — only cigarettes. Red Cross water tankers dispensed drinking water to Fukushima residents who waited in long, orderly lines.

Because of the Fukushima nuclear plants being lost to the national power grid, the Tokyo Electric Power Company, which operates the plants, announced plans for rolling blackouts across the region to conserve electricity — the first controlled power cutbacks in Japan in 60 years.

Tokyo-area residents worriedly followed a series of confusing statements from the power company about the location and duration of the power reductions. Just after 5 p.m., the utility said it had started cutting power to parts of two prefectures — Ibaraki, north of Tokyo, and Shizuoka, south of the capital.

Tokyo was feeling the effects, too. Residents had struggled to get to work Monday as a number of important commuter rail lines ran on limited schedules. Six lines featuring Japan’s famous shinkansen, or bullet trains, were not running. Six major department stores also closed for the day because workers were unable to reach the city.

The rush hour Tuesday morning was nearly as chaotic as commuters were unsure whether trains and subways would be operating. The power company’s announcements continued to be misleading and unclear, and the company came under criticism from the central government.

The first set of blackouts Tuesday morning began in four prefectures outside Tokyo. The utility, which provides service to 45 million people in the region, said the cuts could continue for six weeks.

Public conservation of electricity was significant enough, the company said, that the more drastic blackout scenarios were being scaled back. Still, anticipating deep and lengthy power cuts, many people were stocking up on candles, water, instant noodles and batteries for radios.

Toyota also announced it was closing all its factories until at least Thursday, and in the stock market, shares in the car sector fell as much as 6 percent.

The U.S. Geological Survey recorded 96 aftershocks on Sunday, and many Japanese were alarmed at several earthquake warnings that appeared as televised bulletins on Monday. A warning at 4 p.m., an alert announced by gentle trilling bells told of expected “strong shaking” across the entire waist of Japan, essentially from Tokyo to Kyoto.

Martin Fackler reported from Natori, Japan, and Mark McDonald from Tokyo. Reporting was contributed by Mac Bishop from Fukushima, Japan, Moshe Komata and Hiroko Tibuchi from Tokyo, and Bettina Wassener from Hong Kong.

'the one-two punch'

The New York Times Tokyo bureau chief Martin Fackler's video report, "Aftermath of the Earthquake in Japan," gives a very good overview of the events of Friday, March 11, 2011.

Also worth watching: Day 2
"...what were once cities or towns are just basically mudflats..."


video

Found this 3-minute clip , broadcast on Japanese TV by NHK World, on the BBC News website. It shows houses, cars, debris being washed away. The footage was shot in a few different locations along the northeast coast - the path of the tsunami

Saturday, March 12, 2011

maps and things

Check this out on the New York Times website:

How Shifting Plates Caused the Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan

Click here for an interactive map of the damage

This shows the magnitude of the shaking